As of Monday, September 19, 5:00 pm

Hurricane Katrina in Perspective (see figures below). While the peak crude oil production loss from Hurricane Katrina was similar to 2004's Hurricane Ivan and even less than Hurricane Dennis earlier this year, the pace of restoration is expected to be much more similar to Hurricane Ivan than any of the other recent hurricanes. For example, while the peak daily loss in crude oil production during Hurricane Dennis was slightly more than suffered following Hurricane Katrina, within a week of the peak loss, crude oil production following Hurricane Dennis was back to normal while it will likely be months before crude oil production is back to normal following Hurricane Katrina. New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) prices increased initially following the hurricane. Since early September, product prices generally have declined (increasing on September 19 with news of Tropical Storm Rita approaching the Gulf of Mexico).


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Shut-in Statistics (as of 11:30 a.m. September 19). According to the Minerals Management Service (MMS), Gulf of Mexico (GOM) oil production was reduced by 837,648 barrels per day as a result of Hurricane Katrina, equivalent to 55.84 percent of daily GOM oil production. The MMS also reported that 3.375 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas production was shut in, equivalent to 33.75 percent of daily GOM natural gas production.

Prices

NYMEX Futures	9/19/2005	9/16/2005	change	Week Ago 9/12/2005	Year Ago 9/20/2004
WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl)	67.39	63.00	+4.39	63.34	46.35
Gasoline (c/gal)	204.27	178.51	+25.76	187.37	127.45
Heating Oil (c/gal)	203.84	183.50	+20.34	181.43	126.59
Natural Gas ($/MMBtu)	12.66	11.14	+1.52	11.03	5.25
Diesel Fuel (c/gal)	284.7	289.8	-5.1	187.4	97.3

On September 19, DOE released the weekly Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. As of September 18, the average weekly retail gasoline price decreased to $2.79 (down 16.9 cents from the previous week). Diesel fuel prices decreased 11.5 cents to $2.73.

Refineries. Four refineries (ChevronTexaco, located in Pascagoula, MS; ConocoPhillips, located in Belle Chasse, LA; ExxonMobil, located in Chalmette, LA; and Murphy Oil, located in Meraux, LA) remain shut down, and expectations are that these refineries, which represent about 5 percent of total U.S. refining capacity, could be shut down for an extended period.