World Carbon Emissions: IEO2000 vs. IEO99

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2000

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• If world energy consumption rises to the levels projected in the IEO2000 reference case, carbon emissions would grow to 8.1 billion metric tons in 2010 (or 40 percent above the 1990 level) and 10.0 billion metric tons by 2020 (72 percent above the 1990 level). This year’s forecasts are 129 million metric tons higher in 2010 relative to last year’s forecast; and 192 million metric tons higher by 2020.

• The higher forecast for world carbon emissions can be attributed, in large part, to changes in the forecast for the FSU. Changes in the historical and projected carbon emissions for the FSU explain almost half of the increase between this year’s IEO2000 and last year’s report in 2010; and two-thirds of the difference in 2020. Historical data revisions in the region resulted in a 47 million metric ton increase in estimated emissions in this region for the historical year 1996. Improved expectations for economic recovery in the region in the long-term resulted in a 12-percent increase in FSU energy consumption in 2020, compared to last year’s report and this increase is expected to be almost entirely accommodated by fossil fuel use, thereby resulting in higher emissions projections.

• On a by-fuel basis, emissions from the combustion of oil are projected to be higher than in last year’s report. This is attributed to an increase in the projection for world oil demand as a whole, and increase in FSU demand for oil, in particular. Oil-related carbon emissions are 4.6 percent higher than in last year’s report in 2010, and 7.6 percent higher by 2020. While much of the increase may be attributed to the FSU estimations as noted above, China’s oil-related emissions are markedly higher than in last year’s report (35 percent) because historical numbers for oil use in 1996 were revised upward by 22 percent. Worldwide carbon emissions from gas combustion are largely the same as in last year’s report, and emissions from coal use are about 3 percent lower than in last year’s report because expectations for world coal consumption are slightly lower than in last year’s forecast.