World Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1970-2020

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2000

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• Natural gas is projected to be the fastest-growing component of primary world energy consumption, more than doubling between 1997 and 2020. Gas accounts for the largest increment in electricity generation (41 percent of the total increment of energy used for electricity generation). Combined-cycle gas turbine power plants offer some of the highest commercially available plant efficiencies, and natural gas is environmentally attractive because it emits less sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide, and particulate matter than does oil or coal. In the IEO2000 projection, world natural gas consumption reaches the level of coal by 2005, and by 2020 gas use exceeds coal by 29 percent.

• Oil currently provides a larger share of world energy consumption than any other energy source and is expected to remain in that position throughout the forecast period. Its share of total energy consumption declines slightly, however, from 39 percent in 1997 to 38 percent in 2020, as countries in many parts of the world switch to natural gas and other fuels, particularly for electricity generation. In the industrialized countries, most of the growth in oil use is projected for the transportation sector, where few alternatives are currently economical. In the developing countries, the transportation sector also shows the fastest projected growth in oil use; however, oil use for purposes other than transportation is expected to contribute 42 percent of the total increase in petroleum consumption in the developing countries.

• Coal’s share of total energy consumption falls only slightly, from 24 percent in 1997 to 22 percent in 2020. Its historical share is nearly maintained, because large increases in energy use are projected for the developing countries of Asia, where coal continues to dominate many national fuel markets. Together, two of the key countries in the region—China and India—are projected to account for 97 percent of the world’s total increment in coal use (on a Btu basis). Coal continues to be a major fuel source for electricity generation worldwide, and virtually all the projected growth in world coal use is for electricity. The exception is China, where coal continues to be the primary energy source in a rapidly expanding industrial sector because of the nation’s abundant coal reserves and limited access to alternative sources of energy.

• The prospects for nuclear power to continue its role of meeting a significant share of worldwide electricity consumption are uncertain, despite projected growth of 2.5 percent per year in total electricity demand through 2020. In the IEO2000 reference case, worldwide nuclear capacity is projected to increase to 368 gigawatts in 2010, then begin to decline, falling to 303 gigawatts in 2020. Aggressive plans to expand nuclear capacity, mainly in the Far East, lead to the near-term increase, but plant retirements in the United states and other countries exceed total new additions worldwide and produce a decline later in the forecast. Nuclear safety issues moved to the forefront in Asia in 1999, after several leaks at nuclear power plants in South Korea and China, as well as the serious accident in a reprocessing facility in Tokaimura, Japan. These incidents are likely to cause further public concern about the aggressive plans for nuclear capacity expansion in the Far East.

• Failing a strong worldwide commitment to environmental programs, such as the limitations and reductions of greenhouse gases outlined in the Kyoto Climate Change Protocol, it is difficult to foresee significant widespread increases in renewable energy use. Modest growth in renewable energy is projected to continue, maintaining an 8-percent share of total energy consumption over the forecast horizon. Most of the increase is expected from large-scale hydroelectric projects that are under construction or planned, particularly in developing Asia. For environmental reasons, higher growth rates are expected for alternative renewable energy sources—notably wind—in the industrialized countries.