Slide 7 of 10
Notes:
- Oil provides a larger share of world energy consumption than any other energy source, at 39 percent of the total in 1997. Petroleum is used heavily in the transportation sector and is also used to provide heat and power as well as industrial feedstocks. World oil production is projected to increase by a total of 39.8 million barrels per day (an average rate of 1.9 percent per year), from 73 million barrels per day in 1997 to 112.8 million barrels per day in 2020. Between 1970 and 1997 oil use rose by a total of 26.2 million barrels per day, an average annual increase of 1.7 percent; and the 1970-1997 growth might have been still larger without the price shocks of 1973-1974 and 1979-1980.
- The industrialized countries, currently the largest consumers of petroleum, are expected to remain the largest users through 2020. Oil consumption in the industrialized countries is projected to rise from 43.1 million barrels per day in 1997 to 54.5 million barrels per day in 2020.
- The developing countries are expected to make the largest contribution to the increment of oil demand, an increase of 24.7 million barrels per day from 1997 to 2020, representing 62 percent of the growth in worldwide petroleum consumption. Petroleum consumption in the developing countries was just over one-half (56 percent) of the total consumption in the industrialized countries in 1997, but is projected to reach 90 percent of that in the industrialized countries by 2020.
- Consumption in the EE/FSU was lower in 1997 than in 1970, as a result of political and economic difficulties during the 1990s, primarily in the FSU. Petroleum consumption in the FSU is expected to remain flat for the next few years and then start to rise after 2000. The EE/FSU total is projected to increase by 3.7 million barrels per day between 1997 and 2020.
- Regionally, developing Asia and North America increased oil use by the largest amount between 1970 and 1997, and they are expected to lead the increases in consumption over the forecast period. Substantial growth is also expected in Central and South America, the Middle East, and Africa. In Africa, much of the increase in petroleum consumption will be used to fuel electricity generation, where the infrastructure needed to support the use of other fuels for power generation is still lacking.
