Slide 3 of 10
Notes:
- In the IEO2000 reference case, much of the growth in worldwide energy use is projected for the developing world. In particular, energy demand in developing Asia (including China, India, and South Korea, but excluding Australia, Japan, and New Zealand) and Central and South America is projected to more than double between 1997 and 2020. Both regions are expected to sustain energy demand growth of more than 3 percent annually throughout the forecast, accounting for more than half of the total projected increment in world energy and 83 percent of the increment for the developing world alone.
- The forecast for IEO2000 is more optimistic than last year’s forecast with regard to prospects for growth among the transitional economies of the FSU. Russia and Ukraine, the region’s largest economies, have experienced stronger than expected recovery from the August 1998 monetary crisis in Russia, which also affected most of the other economies in the region. In Russia, 1999 turned out to be the strongest year of economic growth since the 1980s, driven, in part, by higher world oil prices in 1999, but also because of substantial recovery in industrial production which increased by 8 percent in 1999 and a $4.5 billion International Monetary Fund credit approval in July 1999. These events have led to a 12-percent increase in the energy consumption projections for the region in 2020, as compared with last year’s report. The projections for the transitional economies of Eastern Europe—where economic recovery has been sustained for the most part since 1993—remain largely unchanged from last year’s report.
- The industrialized countries are expected to account for about 30 percent of the increment in worldwide energy consumption over the 1997-2010 time period in the reference case. In the industrialized world, one of the primary sources of uncertainty in the forecast is the potential impact of the Kyoto Protocol, which would require reductions or limits to the growth of carbon emissions within the Annex I countries between 2008 and 2012, resulting in a combined 4 percent reduction in emissions relative to 1990 levels. As of January 2000, 83 countries and the European Commission had signed the treaty; however, none of the Annex I countries had ratified it by the time the IEO2000 was prepared for publication. Should the Kyoto Protocol enter into force, it could have profound effects on the use of energy in the industrialized world.
